This was first published April 23, in our weekly newsletter Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up here.
- COIN DAUs are decelerating, but not nearly at the rate the market expects
- While travel is a concern right now, EXPE data looks healthy
- Expectations for UBER seem low
- SE – Garena IAP Revenue suffered to end 1Q
In our attached earnings previews, we summarize in one slide what our data is saying relative to consensus for each of the stocks mentioned above (and many more!). For COIN, EXPE, RBLX, and UBER, we see upside, and for SE’s Garena business we see downside.
Coinbase (COIN)
Our research suggests that the YoY growth in our DAU metric captures the YoY growth trend in COIN’s reported Consumer Trading Volume. While March did show a significant slowdown, January and February saw very strong YoY growth in DAUs. Meanwhile, April’s DAU growth remains positive through the first three weeks. Our view is that 1Q25 growth is trending higher than the market expects.
Expedia (EXPE)
Over time, the relationship between Apptopia’s metrics and Expedia’s reported Room Nights has evolved from being oriented towards new users downloading the app to returning customers using the app for multiple different reasons (booking, changing a reservation, checking in, etc.) We now find that our DAUs metric exhibits the best relationship with Expedia’s Room Nights. This growth has stayed surprisingly solid despite concerns about consumer sentiment. Indeed, the YoY growth in Expedia’s DAUs has even picked up slightly in April.
Roblox (RBLX)
In 4Q24, Apptopia’s data showed a significant deceleration in RBLX’s DAUs. The deceleration was so out-of-consensus that we were concerned about sharing it with our customers. It turned out that our data had the right signal all along in 4Q. Now that 1Q25 has come to a close, we are seeing a rebound in RBLX’s data that we read as better than what consensus expects. While January accounted for the best YoY growth in DAUs in 1Q25, both March and April (MTD) are showing sequential improvements in growth.
Uber (UBER)
Apptopia’s data on Uber’s Driver app corresponds very well to Uber’s reported Trips. While we model our MAU data in the Earnings Preview slides, the DAUs data is shown below for consistency with the stocks above. One can see that activity on the Uber Driver app has been increasing sequentially for the past three months, suggesting better-than-expected growth in Trips.
Sea – (SE)
Apptopia’s IAP Revenue (in-app purchase revenue) captures the activity of players when they purchase new game items through the App Store or Google Play. This metric also historically has done a good job of tracking what SE reports for its Digital Entertainment Revenues (Adjusted). As you can see below, Free Fire MAX had a good January, but actually saw a YoY decline in IAP Revenue in March. Free Fire itself was more steady, but put together, 1Q25 ended on a sour note for the Garena franchise.
